• OPINION

  There is no simple solution to the looming downturn

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 16/06/2016

  » A growing number of economists seem convinced that the US, EU and China are all headed for a prolonged period of sluggish growth -- secular stagnation, in the words of former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. A close parallel would seem to be 1990s Japan. There, too, the bursting of debt-funded asset price bubbles gave way to multiple rounds of fiscal stimulus, massive monetary easing and rock-bottom interest rates. Rescue efforts stabilised conditions but couldn't spark a sustainable recovery, leaving the economy mired in low growth, low inflation and high debt.

• OPINION

  No one can win a global currency war

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 18/08/2016

  » It has been a year since a sudden, 1.9% decline in the Chinese yuan rattled global markets and prompted fears of a global currency war. China has mostly soothed nerves by moderating the renminbi's swoon since then. But what should really put minds to rest is the knowledge that no one could win a true currency war today.

• OPINION

  No such thing as the fourth industrial revolution

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 30/11/2016

  » The theme of the 2016 World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos was the "Fourth Industrial Revolution". Professor Klaus Schwab, WEF's founder, has even published a hasty, crowd-sourced book. He warns that the scale, speed and impact of new technologies, focused on artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, blockchains and biotechnology, are "so profound" that in history "there has never been a time of greater promise or potential peril".

• OPINION

  Don't bet on much change in 2017

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 03/01/2017

  » At the end of each year, commentators traditionally reflect on emergent themes likely to shape the future. These prognostications usually ignore the indifferent record of prophets. The current consensus identifies two themes for the coming year: rising populism, and reflation -- that is, stronger growth and the return of inflation.

• OPINION

  Virtual cash not a global panacea

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 23/05/2017

  » Even now, after the chaos caused by India's decision last November to eliminate nearly 90% of its banknotes, few people would argue with the policy's underlying assumption: Going cashless is, if handled well, a good thing. Yet the fact is, most arguments in favour of demonetisation don't stand up to scrutiny. And those that do should raise other concerns.

• OPINION

  Don't count on innovation to overcome stagnation

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 30/05/2017

  » Innovation, everybody hopes, will rescue the world from economic stagnation. I'm not so sure.

• OPINION

  If corporations are people, they can be real jerks

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 06/06/2017

  » Critics of globalisation have named their enemies: those citizens of the world who, in British Prime Minister Theresa May's scornful phrase, are really "citizens of nowhere". Populist leaders are championing policies to combat such cosmopolitanism -- restricting migration, rethinking regional trade deals, pressuring companies to create jobs at home.

• OPINION

  On energy, the world is asking the wrong questions

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 21/06/2017

  » To adapt Thomas Pynchon, if the wrong question is asked, the answer doesn't matter. Today, the world seems to be consciously framing its energy problems in a way that avoids the right questions, and thus true solutions.

• OPINION

  Extend-and-pretend runs out of puff

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 06/02/2018

  » The default operating model today for seemingly all economics, business, social policy and environmental decisions is "extend and pretend", colloquially known as "kicking the can down the road". This approach brings forward benefits or gains, often based on cosmetic solutions, and defers risks or costs into the future. It's a convenient model for many reasons. But it's now in danger of breaking down.

• OPINION

  Are emerging markets ready for a financial crisis?

  News, Satyajit Das, Published on 27/08/2018

  » Over the past decade, a lot of capital has flowed into emerging markets thanks in part to excessive liquidity in advanced economies. This money has often found its way into risky or suspect investment structures. Should a crisis strike -- say, contagion from Turkey -- investors in these markets will be exposed to risks that they simply aren't prepared for.

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