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China to choose between debt growth or development
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 18/12/2018
» China's top leaders meet this week in Beijing to set economic policy objectives for the coming year. The central question is whether they will do what they want or what the country needs.
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Beijing places its bets on more state economic control
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 28/12/2017
» As 2017 wraps up and 2018 beckons, it's worth reviewing what we forecast for China in the year now ending, and to cast ahead for what themes might play out over the next 12 months. After this week's meeting of Communist Party leaders at the Central Economic Work Conference, we can expect their targets and objectives for 2018. And these meetings have great import: It was the 2015 meeting that started the ongoing "supply-side reform" campaign.
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Could China be close to recession?
News, Christopher Balding, Published on 02/06/2017
» For the first time, China is facing a dreaded prospect: the inverted bond yield curve. The phenomenon, in which long-term interest rates sink below short-term interest rates, has caused some consternation among market-watchers, who know it's traditionally a harbinger of recession. The inversion suggests markets expect interest rates to fall eventually as monetary authorities move to stimulate economic activity.
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