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  • News & article

    Central banks can't solve all woes

    News, Satyajit Das, Published on 25/02/2019

    » In the short time since December 2018, central banks have collectively injected as much as US$500 billion (15.6 trillion baht) of liquidity to stabilise economic conditions. The US Federal Reserve has put interest rate increases on hold and is contemplating a halt to its balance-sheet reduction plan. Other central banks have taken similar actions, fuelling a new phase of the "everything bubble" as markets careen from December's indiscriminate selling to January's indiscriminate buying.

  • News & article

    Five 'doom loops' to navigate in the market this year

    News, Satyajit Das, Published on 03/01/2019

    » As the great unwind of global monetary stimulus gains momentum, markets are at increased risk of experiencing doom loops. Investors need to be prepared for these downward spirals, where shocks set off a self-perpetuating sequence of disruptions.

  • News & article

    Are emerging markets ready for a financial crisis?

    News, Satyajit Das, Published on 27/08/2018

    » Over the past decade, a lot of capital has flowed into emerging markets thanks in part to excessive liquidity in advanced economies. This money has often found its way into risky or suspect investment structures. Should a crisis strike -- say, contagion from Turkey -- investors in these markets will be exposed to risks that they simply aren't prepared for.

  • News & article

    Is an emerging-market crisis near?

    News, Satyajit Das, Published on 05/09/2018

    » Emerging-market stresses have been building since at least 2013. Investors may have forgotten the effect of the "taper tantrum" on the so-called Fragile Five -- Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa -- a term coined by Morgan Stanley to describe their vulnerability to capital outflows. Monetary accommodation, lower current-account deficits and growth disguised the underlying challenges, attracting more capital to those markets.

  • News & article

    Extend-and-pretend runs out of puff

    News, Satyajit Das, Published on 06/02/2018

    » The default operating model today for seemingly all economics, business, social policy and environmental decisions is "extend and pretend", colloquially known as "kicking the can down the road". This approach brings forward benefits or gains, often based on cosmetic solutions, and defers risks or costs into the future. It's a convenient model for many reasons. But it's now in danger of breaking down.

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